Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
15 active17 stale32 sources
32
/ 100
→ StableYELLOW?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
ROUTINE
Military Activity · 24 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
8 MOD16 LOW
Baltiysk naval✈0Brest garrison✈0Gusev garrison✈0Kamenka 138th MRB✈0Kronstadt naval✈0Luga 6th CAA✈0Ostrov airbase✈0Smolensk airbase✈0
16 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Influence Monitor?Tracks how media content gets distorted as it flows between ecosystems. Detects when downstream channels add claims, certainty, or panic framing not in the original source. Validated against 18,000 EUvsDisinfo cases.
10 fabrications · 7d147 narratives this week originated in known disinfo sources and spread to other ecosystems
2.8M total audience · 5 certainty escalations · 3 emotional amplifications
1049detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
0HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
32flagged vessels?Distinct AIS vessels flagged in the last 7 days: near monitored infrastructure, shadow-fleet tanker tags, or naval tags.
Baltic Maritime · 7d
Potentially relevant maritime activity near Baltic infrastructure
2152 total tracked32 near cables
65military aircraft?Distinct ADS-B aircraft tagged as military in the last 7 days.
Flight Tracking · 7d
Military and state-relevant aircraft observed near the Baltics
1150 total tracked65 military tagged
5Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
MODERATE
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Lithuanian Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for Lithuania
Lithuanian Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Nord Pool day-ahead electricity price
LT electricity: 69.0 EUR/MWh
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Lithuania.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events relevant to Lithuania2 elevated4 advisory4 normal
| Category | Indicator | Finding | Conf | ↗ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYBRID | Composite Threat Index | Baltic CTI is 31.2/100 (YELLOW); security 0.7, fimi 24.4, hybrid 5.2, economic 1.0. | ●●● | ||
| MARITIME | Maritime Activity Monitoring | AIS collector fresh (143209 signals/24h, latest 2026-03-23 07:20 UTC); volume is elevated vs 7-day baseline (z=5.2). | ●●● | ||
| HYBRID | Social Channel Monitoring | Social monitoring partially stale: telegram latest 2026-03-23 06:31 UTC, youtube latest 2026-03-22 07:24 UTC. | ●○○ | ↗ | |
| HYBRID | Influence Activity | 10 active campaign(s), 12 narrative tags in the last 24 hours. Top campaign: Hostile framing of US envoy's statements to legitimize Lukashenko and downplay Ukraine conflict. | ●●○ | ||
| HYBRID | GPS Interference Monitoring | GPSJam feed fresh; 13 elevated interference zone(s) observed in the last 72 hours. | ●●● | ↗ | |
| MILITARY | Satellite Coverage | Satellite analysis stale since 2026-03-22 00:23 UTC; no fresh imagery-derived updates in the last 24 hours. | ●○○ | ↗ |