Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
29 active3 stale32 sources
15
/ 100
→ StableYELLOW?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
1 active disinformation campaign
HEIGHTENED
Military Activity · 44 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
1 HIGH29 MOD14 LOW
Alabino trainingBaltiysk navalBaranovichi Belarus✈15Brest garrisonBryansk stagingDonskoye missilesGrodno garrisonGusev garrisonKaliningrad Chkalovsk✈12Kamenka 138th MRBKlintsy stagingKronstadt navalKursk Khalino✈12Levashovo airbase✈12Luga 6th CAAMachulishchy Belarus✈4Millerovo airbase✈28Morozovsk airbase✈20Nizhny Tagil UVZOsipovichi storagePogonovo trainingPskov 76th VDVRostov Southern HQSaki Novofedorovka✈10Sevastopol navalShaykovka airbase✈12Smolensk airbase✈12Strugi KrasnyeVoronezh Malshevo✈12Yelnya garrison
14 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Detected Operations · 30 days?Coordinated information operations detected by analyzing cross-platform signal patterns.
10 activeDetected War Panic across osint_perplexity, rss, ru_legislation, telegram. 23 signals from 13 actors including 15min.lt, BALTNEWS, BNN (Baltic). Evidence: Cross-outlet amplification: 13 outlets; baseline: 4±4 actors/day…
Detected Russophobia across osint_perplexity, rss, telegram. 48 signals from 16 actors including 15min.lt, Alexey Stefanov (Правфонд), BALTNEWS. Evidence: Cross-outlet amplification: 16 outlets; baseline: 6±5 ac…
Detected Isolation across rss, telegram. 33 signals from 14 actors including 15min.lt, Alexey Stefanov (Правфонд), BALTNEWS. Evidence: Cross-outlet amplification: 14 outlets; baseline: 6±4 actors/day, today: 14 …
Detected Delegitimization across osint_perplexity, rss, telegram. 61 signals from 19 actors including Alexey Stefanov (Правфонд), BALTNEWS, BNN (Baltic). Evidence: Cross-outlet amplification: 19 outlets; baseline…
A coordinated pro-Kremlin narrative campaign pushes false claims of political repression, ethnic tension, and societal collapse in the Baltic states, using forged intelligence and emotive rhetoric. Actors like Alexey Ste…
Pm Criticism (3 signals)MEDIUM
Detected Pm Criticism across rss, youtube. 3 signals from 3 actors including Aleksandr Chaplygin YouTube, ERR RUS, Postimees RUS. Evidence: Cross-outlet amplification: 3 outlets (1 non-legitimate); FIMI keywords: PM/Lead…
A coordinated cross-outlet campaign amplifies pro-Kremlin narratives framing the U.S. as seeking to divide Europe, using Estonian foreign minister Kaja Kallas as a focal point. Outlets like RT, TASS, and Kommersant echo …
This coordinated information operation pushes false narratives of genocide against Russians in Estonia, frames Baltic states as ungrateful and anti-Russian, and exploits citizenship issues to undermine Estonian sovereign…
A coordinated FIMI campaign pushes narratives of Estonian state repression and separatist sentiment in Narva, amplified by Russian-language outlets like ERR RUS and KOOS YouTube. These actors exploit local tensions to un…
A cross-outlet information operation amplifies EKRE leader Martin Helme's claims about U.S. intentions in Estonia, particularly stoking fears about nuclear weapons and resource exploitation. Pro-Kremlin outlets like RT R…
814detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
12HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
1293ships tracked?Ships transmit AIS signals with position and identity.
Baltic Maritime · 24h
Vessel activity in the Baltic Sea, including sanctions-evading tankers
11 near cables
2314aircraft?ADS-B transponder data for military and government aircraft.
Military Flights · 24h
Russian military and government aircraft tracked near the Baltics
--Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
UNAVAILABLE
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Lithuanian Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for Lithuania
Lithuanian Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Real-time electricity production vs consumption. Deficit = importing power
-207MW deficit
Prod: 646 MWCons: 853 MW
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Lithuania.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events relevant to Lithuania12 normal
| Category | Indicator | Finding | Conf | ↗ |
|---|
Threat Index History
How the overall threat score has changed — higher = more concerning
Signal Volume
How many data points we collected per day, by source type
RSSTelegramAISGPS JamOther
Indicator Breakdown
Daily count of security indicators by severity